The Market Feels Stuck. So Who Should Actually Buy a Home Right Now?
There are housing markets when buying a home feels obvious.
This isn't one of them.
Mortgage rates remain elevated. Home prices are still high. Affordability has become a legitimate challenge for many households, and the headlines aren't exactly helping. One day buyers are told the market is finally shifting in their favor. The next day they're warned that rates could stay higher longer. Then comes another prediction about prices rising, falling, flattening, or doing something entirely different depending on which economist happens to be speaking.
It's enough to make a reasonable person wonder whether doing nothing might be the smartest decision of all.
And for some people, it might be.
But that's also where I think we've allowed the housing conversation to become far too simplistic. We keep asking one enormous question as though there is one answer for millions of people:
Is now a good time to buy a home?
Maybe that's the wrong question.
A much better one is:
Is now a good time for you to buy a home?
Because you aren't buying the U.S. housing market. You're buying one home, at one price, in one location, with one payment, based on what is happening in your life.
That distinction matters more than almost any housing headline you'll read this year.
The Market Really Does Feel Stuck
Let's acknowledge what buyers are seeing instead of pretending it isn't happening.
Existing-home sales fell again in July, dropping 1.7% nationally. The median existing-home price reached $434,100, while first-time buyers accounted for only 29% of purchases. Mortgage rates have remained in the mid-to-upper 6% range, keeping monthly payments substantially higher than buyers became accustomed to during the ultra-low-rate years.
At the same time, something else has been happening.
Buyers who remain in the market are beginning to encounter something many haven't experienced in years:
Negotiating power.
Redfin reported this summer that there were hundreds of thousands more sellers than buyers nationally. Roughly 20% of listings had experienced price reductions, and seller concessions have become increasingly common. In May, 46.2% of U.S. home sales included some form of seller concession—the highest May share in Redfin's records.
That's an unusual combination.
Money is expensive.
Homes are expensive.
But competition has softened in many markets.
So what do you do with that?
You stop trying to decide whether the market is ready and start determining whether you are.
The Family Whose House Simply Doesn't Work Anymore
Sometimes life doesn't care what mortgage rates are doing.
The two-bedroom starter home that was perfect when you bought it may feel very different after another child arrives.
Two people working remotely can quickly discover that a kitchen table wasn't designed to be two offices, a homework station, and the place where everyone is supposed to eat dinner.
A thirty-minute commute can become an hour after changing jobs.
A parent may need to move closer.
Children may need a different school arrangement.
Life changes.
We've talked before about how homes evolve with us—from the rise of flex spaces and home offices to the way families experience back-to-school and college transitions. A home is not simply an asset on a balance sheet. It's also the place where your everyday life has to function.
That doesn't mean you should ignore the financial side of moving.
It means there are times when waiting for the "perfect market" has a cost that isn't measured entirely in dollars.
If your current home genuinely no longer supports the way your family lives, today's market may still deserve consideration.
The Buyer Planning to Stay for a While
This is where time changes the conversation.
Someone planning to buy a property and sell it again eighteen months from now should evaluate today's market very differently from someone who expects to live there for the next seven, ten, or fifteen years.
Real estate has transaction costs. Markets fluctuate. Repairs happen. Moving isn't free.
A longer ownership horizon gives those costs more time to be absorbed and gives the homeowner more time to build equity through principal reduction and whatever appreciation the market ultimately produces.
It also changes how important today's exact mortgage rate becomes.
You purchase the home at today's price.
The financing doesn't necessarily have to remain the same forever.
If rates decline enough in the future, refinancing may become an option. If they don't, the buyer should already have purchased based on a payment that works today.
That's an important distinction.
Never buy a home you can't comfortably afford today because you're counting on refinancing tomorrow.
Refinancing should be an opportunity—not the plan holding the entire purchase together.
The Buyer Who Finally Has Room to Negotiate
There's another type of buyer who should be paying very close attention to this market.
The one who tried to buy several years ago and hated every minute of it.
Remember that market?
A property appeared online.
You scheduled a showing.
By the time you arrived, there were cars lined up outside.
Offers were due that evening.
Inspection contingencies disappeared. Appraisal gaps became normal. Buyers offered above asking price and still lost.
Mortgage rates were wonderful.
Actually buying the house wasn't.
Today's higher rates have removed many buyers from the competition, and that has changed the negotiating environment in many areas.
A seller who would have laughed at a closing-cost request several years ago may now consider one.
A home sitting on the market longer than expected may have room for a price discussion.
Inspection periods matter again.
Contingencies aren't automatically deal killers.
And sometimes a seller may be willing to contribute toward closing costs or a temporary or permanent interest-rate buydown.
That doesn't automatically make today's market "better."
It makes it different.
The mortgage rate is only one component of a transaction. Price, concessions, repairs, closing costs, financing structure, and competition all influence what you ultimately pay and what risk you assume.
A lower rate isn't nearly as exciting if getting it requires overpaying for the house and waiving every protection you have.
The Downsizer May Be Playing an Entirely Different Game
Housing headlines tend to assume every buyer is financing 80% or 90% of a purchase.
Many aren't.
Consider someone who purchased a home twenty years ago and has accumulated substantial equity. The children are grown, maintaining the property has become less appealing, and 3,500 square feet no longer makes much sense for two people.
That homeowner may be able to sell, carry significant equity into the next purchase, and finance a much smaller portion of the new home—or potentially avoid financing altogether.
Suddenly, a 6.5% mortgage rate isn't the defining factor in the decision.
Taxes might matter more.
Maintenance might matter more.
Accessibility might matter more.
Travel might matter more.
Being closer to children or grandchildren might matter more.
That's why broad statements such as "Nobody should buy with rates this high" don't hold up very well once actual human beings enter the equation.
Everyone's math is different.
What About the First-Time Buyer?
This is probably the hardest conversation in today's market.
First-time buyers don't typically have another property's equity to roll into the purchase. They're building a down payment while paying rent, dealing with higher everyday expenses, and trying to enter a housing market where both prices and borrowing costs remain elevated.
The numbers show how difficult that has become. First-time buyers represented just 29% of existing-home purchases in July.
But "difficult" and "impossible" aren't the same thing.
A first-time buyer with stable employment, manageable debt, adequate reserves, and a realistic housing budget may still have opportunities—particularly in a market where competition has eased.
The key word is realistic.
Your first home doesn't have to be your dream home.
It doesn't have to have the kitchen you'll want when you're forty-five.
It doesn't need five bedrooms for children you don't have yet.
It needs to make sense for your life and finances now while giving you reasonable flexibility for what comes next.
Homeownership doesn't need to begin with perfection.
It needs to begin with sustainability.
And Then There's the Buyer Who Should Wait
This is the part that doesn't appear often enough in real estate marketing.
Sometimes waiting is the right decision.
If buying would drain every dollar from your savings account, you're probably not ready.
If you're unsure whether your job will exist six months from now, buying may not be the priority.
If you expect to relocate again shortly, transaction costs may work against you.
If you're carrying significant high-interest debt, strengthening your financial position could be more valuable than rushing into homeownership.
And if the only way the payment works is by telling yourself, "Rates will probably drop next year," that's a warning sign.
A house shouldn't make you financially fragile.
There will always be another listing.
There will always be another neighborhood.
And despite what breathless social-media posts occasionally suggest, there will be another opportunity.
The goal isn't to own a house at any cost.
The goal is to own the right house under circumstances that allow you to enjoy owning it.
Stop Trying to Predict the Mortgage Market
This may be the hardest habit for buyers to break.
Everyone wants to know where rates are going.
Will they be lower by Thanksgiving?
Will the Federal Reserve change course?
Should I wait until spring?
What happens after the next inflation report?
Economists spend their careers studying these questions and still revise their forecasts.
Realtor.com's midyear outlook currently expects mortgage rates to average about 6.3% during 2026, home-price growth to slow to approximately 1.2%, and existing-home sales to improve only modestly. In other words, the current expectation isn't some dramatic return to the housing environment of 2020 or 2021. It's a market gradually searching for balance.
Could that change?
Of course.
That's precisely the point.
Building your entire housing decision around correctly predicting interest rates requires you to get several things right at once.
You need to predict rates.
You need to predict prices.
You need to predict inventory.
You need to predict competition.
And then you need the home you actually want to be available when all those predictions align.
That's a lot of moving targets.
A Better Question Than "Should I Wait?"
I've written before about the potential cost of waiting to purchase real estate.
But waiting isn't inherently good or bad.
Waiting without a reason is the problem.
There's an enormous difference between:
"I'm waiting six months to eliminate $15,000 of credit-card debt and build my emergency fund."
and
"I'm waiting because somebody on TikTok said housing prices are about to crash."
The first is a plan.
The second is a prediction.
If you're going to wait, know what you're waiting for.
A larger down payment?
Improved credit?
A more stable job?
Lower monthly debt?
A specific amount in reserves?
A clearer idea of where you want to live?
Those are measurable goals.
"Waiting for the market to get better" isn't.
“I’m Just Going to Wait”: The Real Estate Decision That Feels Safe but Can Quietly Cost You
You Aren't Buying a Market. You're Buying a Life.
This is ultimately where spreadsheets and headlines stop being enough.
The national median price doesn't tell me whether the house you're considering is overpriced.
A national inventory statistic doesn't tell me how many comparable homes are available in the neighborhood where you want to live.
And today's average mortgage rate doesn't tell me what financing options you personally qualify for.
Real estate is intensely local.
But it's also intensely personal.
Maybe buying now means your children finally have a backyard.
Maybe it cuts forty minutes from your commute.
Maybe it gets you closer to aging parents.
Maybe you're tired of renting and are financially prepared to put down roots.
Maybe you're downsizing because you'd rather spend Saturday traveling than maintaining a house you no longer need.
Or maybe you run the numbers and realize staying exactly where you are for another year is the smartest move you can make.
All of those can be good real estate decisions.
The answer depends on the person making them.
So, Who Should Actually Buy Right Now?
Someone who is financially prepared.
Someone whose payment works today.
Someone with adequate reserves after closing.
Someone purchasing a home that fits their foreseeable life.
Someone who understands the local market rather than relying entirely on national headlines.
Someone willing to negotiate instead of assuming the asking price is the final word.
Someone who can own long enough that short-term market fluctuations don't control the entire decision.
And perhaps most importantly, someone who has a reason for buying that is stronger than:
"Everyone says I should."
The market may feel stuck.
Your life isn't.
Jobs change. Families grow. Children leave for college. Parents get older. Careers move us. Relationships change. Priorities shift.
Real estate has always existed in the middle of those moments.
So if you're wondering whether now is the right time to buy, don't start by asking me where mortgage rates will be six months from now.
Start by telling me what's happening in your life.
Then we'll look at the numbers.
And somewhere between those two things, we'll usually find the answer.
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